The demographic situation in Armenia raises concerns mainly with regard to three issues: low fertility, aging and migration. According to the National Statistical Service of Armenia (NSS,) the fertility rate is 1.5 children per woman, while for simple reproduction of population it should be 2.1 and higher. The share of population of ages 65 or older is 11.1%. According to UN classification, a population is considered old when this indicator exceeds 7%. During the last 10 years, the total mortality rate has increased by around 13.3%. According to NSS estimates, Armenia's population will be 2.9 million in 2035.

Mediamax talked to UNFPA Representative for Turkey and Country Director for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia Dr. Zahidul Huque.

- Mr. Huque, which are the most critical demographic challenges Armenia faces today?

- As you might know, the entire Eastern Europe is experiencing low fertility. It is part of demographic transition, and Armenia is not an exception. But Armenia has been facing high level of migration over the years and this has caused Armenia to suffer more than other countries. In terms of low fertility, Armenia and Georgia are almost comparable. Population growth in Georgia is even less than in Armenia. I think the most important challenge is lack of enough investments for young population – in education, health, building capacity and job opportunities. From my perspective, all these issues set major concern for Armenia. But Armenia has tremendous potential due to its human capital. Young Armenian people are very vibrant, intellectual and what we need to do is invest in them. In this case, your country will have brighter future than it has now.

- There are many speculations that Armenia’s current demographic situation is alarming. Do you agree with it?

- I don’t think so. I think there is lack of understanding of the situation. As I said, many parts of the world are going through this transition. All they need is to rethink how to reposition themselves in the context of low fertility and high level of migration. Beyond doubt, they need pension reforms as well as reforms in labor markets. It will definitely help Armenia.

It is crucial to involve the young in pension and aging policy-making process. We saw it in case of Albania, and it produced very dramatic results. Young people think about their own future, and there was no fight between young and older generation. The young population plays a fundamental role in this kind of policy-making. 

- Could you please present the demographic situation in Georgia and Azerbaijan?

- Aging is actually a serious issue for Georgia as well. Life expectancy in Georgia is quite high, fertility is low. But Georgia has privatized a lot of sectors and some of the burdens are shared among the private sector. Georgia has gone a little bit extreme in this direction. Total privatization is not a solution, but selective privatization might be, take the U.S. There should me partnership between the private and public sectors. As to Azerbaijan, the country’s economy is blooming and they should invest in the social sector. Every time I visit Azerbaijan, I say they need to invest in the social sector, otherwise the situation there might be like what we see in the Middle East countries, which are rich in oil but did not invest in education, health and other social sectors. It was a serious problem for those countries, and the same might happen with Azerbaijan – quality of education and healthcare raise serious concerns.

- You might be well aware of selective abortion in Armenia. Recently the Armenian PM spoke about this issue and assigned the government bodies to submit an Action Plan until March 2015. How will you assess the sex selection situation in Armenia?

- Firstly, it is a serious concern not only for Armenia, but for the whole region. The question of gender equality is the primary cause of the problem. The solution lies in our understanding and mindset – how the girl child is valued in the society. We need to bring to society the idea that girls are equally important, and they have a right to equal rights and job opportunities. This understanding must be the basis of the decision-making process.

Yekaterina Poghosyan talked to Zahidul Huque